February 3, 2004

Ms. Magalie Roman Salas
Secretary
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission
888 First Street, NE Washington, DC 20426

Re: S. D. Warren Co.
Eel Weir Hydroelectric Project
FERC No. 2984-042 (Maine)

Dear Ms. Salas:

At a technical conference on January 7, 2004 (noticed by the Commission on December 10, 2003) Tom Howard, of S. D. Warren, in response to a question from me, stated it was S. D Warren's policy to shut the gates at Eel Weir Dam when flooding is occurring downstream of the dam in Westbrook.

I do not believe that S. D. Warren shared this policy with the FERC in its recent license application or with the State and other interested parties, who accepted the current Lake Level management Plan (LLMP) at the August 12, 1996 meeting in the Governor's office.

Furthermore, this policy is inconsistent with the existing operating parameters, which ". . . . mandate immediate increases in outflows as necessary to prevent reaching elevation 267.15 ft. msl."

I believe that this is a recent policy change, as a review of historic outflow data reveals that normal outflows were maintained at Eel Weir during periods of historic peak flows downstream in Westbrook.

It appears that S. D. Warren has made a unilateral decision that it is more important to protect downstream property owners (including its facilities) from flooding, rather than upstream property owners, with whom they have a fiduciary interest to provide flood protection because of the limits established by its flowage easements.

However, S. D. Warren has proposed a LLMP in its 30 year license application to FERC which is inconsistent with this policy. Shutting the gates at Eel Weir to hold back peak flows from the upper watershed will only be effective if there is adequate reservoir storage.

The proposed LLMP in S. D. Warren's license application has the same target ranges as the existing LLMP. Lake levels have been managed for the past seven years to this LLMP, and this has greatly reduced the historic reservoir storage as measured by the 1910-86 mean and 1997-2003 percentiles (see Appendix 1) between June and November.

Besides reducing the amount of historic reservoir storage, the existing LLMP has produced a seven year mean (1997-2003) which is 12" to 17" higher than the 1910-86 historic mean for the months of September, October and November (see Appendix 2). These higher lake levels in the Fall will produce both increased erosion and sedimentation and total phosphorous contributions, according to the following conclusion by FERC staff in the January 1997 Final Environmental Impact Statement:

1. "Our wave energy analysis indicates that the months of September, October and November are times of significantly high wave energies."

2. "Consequently, it is important to maintain lower lake levels during the fall months to minimize beach erosion."

3. "We determined in section 4.0 that increased erosion water quality impacts would likely result from any proposed management plan that results in elevated fall lake levels . . . and would adversely affect near shore water quality by increasing total phosphorous and turbidity concentration."

In forcing the lake to be above the long term mean from May 1 to November 1, S. D. Warren has greatly reduced the amount of flood storage from what was historically available. Consequently, the existing and proposed LLMP will not only increase the frequency of peak flood flows downstream of the dam, but also the frequency of trespass of the flowage easements upstream of the dam.

According to a July 1980 Flood Insurance Study for City of Westbrook, by FEMA (Town of Westbrook, Maine Flood Insurance Map link http://mapl.msc.fema.gov/idms/IntraView.cgi?
KEY=8162351&1FIT=1):

"Extensive regulation of Sebago Lake has greatly attenuated peak flows from the upper 436 square miles of the Presumpscot River watershed. Runoff from the lower 134 square mile drainage area is the primary contributor to flood flows in Westbrook."

S. D. Warren is advocating an LLMP which significantly reduces the reservoir storage and thereby, will result in peak flows from the upper 436 square miles of watershed, contributing to peak flood flows from the lower 134 square mile drainage area.

The existing LLMP represents a political compromise, and there was no discussion at the time it was formulated of the importance of maintaining historic reservoir storage to mitigate downstream flooding. This reduction in the historic reservoir storage will increase the number of trespasses of the flowage easements around Sebago Lake and will be compounded by the policy of shutting the gates when flooding is occurring downstream of the dam. This happened recently in June of 1998, when a two-year storm event of 3.58" of precipitation occurred on June 13, 1998, and on June 14, 1998 S. D. Warren reduced flows from Eel Weir Dam to 0 cfm. On June 15, 1998 flow was increased to 110,000 cfm, and June 16, 1998 it was increased to 210,000 cfm, which is the maximum hydraulic capacity of Eel Weir.

Monthly rainfall in April of 1998 was 3.36 in., and in May it was 3.83 in. Normal rainfall is 4.08 in., and 3.62 in. in April and March, respectively. Total rainfall for the first 12 days of
June, 1998 was only .73 in.

AFTER ONLY A TWO-YEAR STORM EVENT, ON JUNE 13, 1998, PRECEDED BY TWO MONTHS AND 12 DAYS OF NORMAL PRECIPITATION, S. D. WARREN SHUT THE GATES OF THE EEL WEIR DAM BECAUSE OF DOWNSTREAM FLOODING IN WESTBROOK.

There was 3.66 in. of precipitation during the next four days, and lake levels rose from 265.96 ft. msl on June 10 to 267.38 ft. msl on June 17, 1998. This was .23 ft. above S. D. Warren's flowage easements. With outflows of 210,000 cfm, it took eight days for S. D. Warren to lower lake levels below its flowage easement limit of 267.15 ft. msl. There was a total of 0.07 in. of precipitation during these eight days.

AFTER THIS EVENT, FRIENDS OF SEBAGO LAKE (FOSL) FORMALLY WITHDREW, BY LETTER TO THE FERC, ITS SUPPORT OF THE CURRENT LLMP.

Daily mean streamflow data for Presumpscot River at Outlet of Sebago has been calculated from 1900 to date at the USGS 01064000 Presumpscot River at Outlet of Sebago Lake (Surface Water-Daily Streamflow in Chart or data format http://nwis.waterdata.usgs.gov/me/nwis/discharge/?site_no=01064000&agency_cd=USGS).

I have arranged, for easy reference, these daily mean flows in descending order from the highest daily mean flow of 7,000 cfs on April 7, 1902 to 3,130 cfs on June 26, 1922 (Appendix 2). This June of 1998 event has resulted in the third highest event of daily mean flows out of 104 years of data (see page 1 of Appendix 3).

I have provided precipitation data for the past 14 years in Appendix 4. When you compare the precipitation events of June, 1998 to this data it is obvious that the events of June, 1998 were not historic in nature. However, these events resulted in the third highest daily mean flows in 104 years at the outlet of Sebago Lake and the trespass by S. D. Warren of the flowage easements for eight days.

In its license renewal application, S. D. Warren failed to mention the importance of maintaining an adequate reservoir storage to mitigate peak flows downstream of the dam. In the Report 97-4189, Flood of October,1996 in Southern Maine, by the U. S. Department of the Interior and U. S. Geological Survey, it was concluded:

"Sebago Lake stored most of the rain that fell on the 441 square miles of the Presumpscot River drainage basin that is above the outlet of the lake. If this water had not been stored, peak flows and peak water-surface elevations on the lower Presumpscot River would have been higher than they were in October 1996."

According to Flood Insurance Study for Town of Windham, March 2, 1981 by Federal Emergency Management Agency (Community Number 230189) (Town of Windham, Maine Flood Insurance Map link:http://mapl.msc.fema.gov/idms/IntraView.cgi?KEY=7963660&IFIT=1)

"Major floods occurred in the Presumpscot River Basin in March 1896, March 1936, September 1954 and March 1977."

"Regulation of Sebago Lake has greatly reduced peak flows from the upper 436 square miles of the Presumpscot watershed. A notable example was in the spring (March) of 1977. The recorded flow in the lower reaches of the river was at a recurrence interval between 50 and 100 years, yet there was no outflow from Sebago Lake."

The following is Table 5 from the 1996 Study, which lists the significant historical peak flows on the Presumpscot River in Westbrook, Maine:

Table 5

Date Flow (cfs)
April 15, 1895 13,000 (a)

March 1, 1896 13,000 (a)

February 13, 1900 11,300 (b)

March 2, 1900 9,720 (a)

May 17, 1916 12,400 (a)

June 17, 1917 9,710 (a)

March 12, 1936 11,200 (a)

September 11, 1954 12,400 (a)

March 14, 1977 11,200 (b)

May 12, 1989 9,200 (c)

August 20, 1991 13,900 (c)

October 22, 1996 23,300 (d)
____________________________________________
(a) Flow computed by S. D. Warren Co. Using Weir
Equations at Saccarappa Dam in Westbrook.
(b) Flow computed by U. S. Geological Survey at
streamflow gaging station in Falmouth and adjusted
to Westbrook using a drainage area correction.
(c) Flow computed by U. S. Geological Survey at
streamflow gaging station in Westbrook.
(d ) Flow computed by U. S. Geological Survey by
contracted opening measurement at I-95 bridge in
Falmouth and adjusted to Westbrook using a
drainage area correction.

It is apparent from reviewing the daily mean stream flow data between 1900 to date in 2004, from Outlet of Sebago Lake, in Appendix 3, that regulation of Sebago Lake greatly reduced peak flows from the upper 436 square miles of the Presumpscot watershed in eleven of the twelve historic peak flows downstream at Westbrook, which were identified in Table 5. In
fact, nine of the ten years with the highest daily mean flows listed in Appendix 2 at Eel Weir Dam occurred at different times than these twelve most significant peak flows at Westbrook.

In the following table, which is Table 3 from the October 1996 Study, the recurrence intervals and peak flows for the Presumpscot River at S. D. Warren Bridge, in Westbrook, are listed:

Table 3

Recurrence Exceedance Peak Flow
Interval Probability (cfs)

2 years 0.500 5.310

5 years 0.200 7.830

10 years 0.100 9.890

25 years 0.40 13,000

50 years 0.020 15,700

100 years 0.010 18,900

200 years (a) 0.005 22,400

500 years (a) 0.002 28,000
__________________________________________
(a) Recurrence intervals greater than 100 years
have a large uncertainty associated with them.


Between the 25 year and 50 year recurrence interval, there is a difference of 2,700 cfs and between 50 year and 100 years, the difference is 3,200 cfs. The target ranges in S. D. Warrenís proposed LLMP are significantly above the historic mean (1910-86) and will greatly reduce the historic reservoir storage. This will cause the lake to fill sooner, and outflows of 3,500 cfs and higher will be contributing to the historic downstream peaks at more frequent intervals and some 25- year peak flows will become 50 year peak flows and some 50 year peak flows will become 100-year peak flows, etc.

The situation is far more dire if I use the following information from Table 1 of Flood Insurance Study for City of Westbrook, July 1980 by Federal Emergency Management Agency (Community Number 230054).

In this Study, the difference between a 50-year peak and 100-year peak is 1,500 cfs and between a 100-year peak and 500-year peak it is 3,700 cfs at Cumberland Mills Dam in Westbrook. So a contribution of 3,500 cfs from Sebago Lake will turn 50 year events into 100 year, etc.

The problem of increased flooding is also being compounded by extensive development in both the upper and lower watersheds of the Presumpscot River during the past twenty years. The 10-year peak flow was calculated at 1980 cfs at Eel Weir Dam in Table 3 of the March 2, 1981 Flood Insurance Study for Windham. I reviewed the daily mean outflows from Eel Weir from 1960 to date and have listed below how many days these daily flows exceeded 1980 cfs:

# of Days
Daily Mean Flow # of Days
Year Exceeded 2040 cfs By Decade
1960 11 25
1969 14

1970 14 52
1973 13
1978 17
1979 8

1983 27 81

1984 36
1989 18

1990 16
1991 5 89
1996 16
1997 16
1998 23
1999 13

2000 4
2003 8 20
2004 to date 8


The annual rainfall for each of the four years 2000-2003 has been below normal (see Appendix 3).

The FERC Division of Hydropower Compliance, on September 11, 2003, cited S. D. Warren for violating the Order Amending LLMP by its failure to achieve Spring 2003 fill up between May 1 through the second week of June.

At S. D. Warrenís request, FERC held a Technical Conference on January 7, 2004. The purpose of this meeting was to review Sebago Lake Level Management Plan Operation for Eel Weir Dam Project No. 2984 in the winter and spring of 2003.

FERC personnel recommended at this meeting that lake levels should have been higher in March of 2003, even though S. D. Warren was concerned about the snowpack in the watershed, which had a water content of 6-8 inches.

I will not call this recommendation reckless, but it is obvious that the May 1 to June 15 target range of the current LLMP is reckless if S. D. Warren is being told by the FERC Compliance Division that the May 1 to June 15 target range is a mandate and no matter how much snow pack is in the watershed, lake levels are to be kept high enough in February and March to ensure that the target range between May 1 and June 15 is hit, even during periods of below normal precipitation.

The following statements, which were taken from a Flood Insurance Study of the Town of Windham, March 2, 1981, by Federal Emergency Management Agency, illustrate how reckless it is to ignore snow pack and to mandate such a high target range between May 1 to June 15, without any consideration for reservoir storage:

1. Water from snowmelt is a significant source of runoff during March and April. The average water content of snow cover on March 1, based on records for the period 1941-65, is five inches per USGS Study Average Water Content of Snowpack in Maine, Hydrologic Investigations Atlas MA-452, Augusta, Maine 1972.

2. Major floods occurred in the Presumpscot River Basin in March 1986, March 1936, September 1954 and March 1977,

3. The 1896 flood produced what was probably the largest documented flood on the Presumpscot River. The apparent causes of this flood were ice, frozen ground, snowmelt and approximately six inches of rainfall in two days (Reference 81).

4. The March 1936 flood was one of the worst flood disasters even recorded in Maine. The flood was caused by days of heavy rain, melting snow, ice jams and several thunderstorms and cloudbursts. The Presumpscot River was affected to a lesser degree than others in the state, but damage was still severe.

5. A flood in September, 1954 caused some of the worse localized flooding that some sections of the City of Westbrook have ever experienced. The
major cause of this flood was Hurricane Edna, which dropped water on the area for several days.

6. A peak flow of 12,500 cfs on the Presumpscot River at West Falmouth in March1977 also caused localized flooding in Westbrook. The flood was caused by four inches of rain falling on frozen ground covered with snow. The snow had an estimated water content of about four inches. Because the gauge at West Falmouth has only been in operation since 1975, no recurrence interval could be computed. Other USGS gauging stations in the area recorded peak flow with 500-year recurrence for this event.

7. Regulation of Sebago Lake has greatly reduced peak flows from the upper 436 square miles of the Presumpscot watershed. A notable example was in the spring of 1977. The recorded flow in the lower reaches of the river was at a recurrence interval between 50 and 100 years, yet there was no outflow from Sebago Lake. The five dams downstream of Sebago Lake do little to alter flow.

8. The major lakes in Windham have many seasonal or year-round dwellings on their shores, some of which are subject to damage during high water.

9. Because of the comparatively small drainage area and the short reaches between dams, the Prescumpscot River can rise from normal flow to flood flow in a relatively short period of time.

10. Once flood discharges recede, the high flows can persist for several days, while the many ponds behind dams in the basin are drained to normal levels.

11. North Windham, the most developed section of the Town, has experienced substantial commercial expansion in recent years, and has two large shopping malls presently under construction.


The following statements were taken from Flood Insurance Study for City of Westbrook, July 1980, by Federal Emergency Management Agency:

1. Extensive regulation of Sebago Lake has greatly attenuated peak flows from the upper 436 square miles of the Presumpscot River watershed. Runoff from the lower 134 square mile drainage area is the primary contributor to flood flows in Westbrook.

2. Flooding in Westbrook commonly occurs in late winter and early spring, due to the contribution of melting snow, frozen ground, ice jams and early spring rains.

The historic peak flows in Westbrook, which have been identified in these flood studies, have occurred in the following months:

J F M A M J J A S O N D

1 4 1 2 1 1 1 2


It is obvious from reviewing the data from these flood studies that there will be times when S. D. Warren's new policy of shutting the gates at Eel Weir because flooding is occurring downstream in Westbrook, will attenuate peak flows from upper watershed and thereby reduce the amount of downstream flooding. However, S. D. Warren cannot arbitrarily abandon its fiduciary interest with the property owners who have flowage easements upstream of Eel Weir.

S. D. WARREN HAS AN OBLIGATION TO PROPOSE AN LLMP WHICH RECOGNIZES ITS FIDUCIARY INTEREST AND NOT PROPOSE A PLAN WHICH WILL RESULT IN SMALL STORM EVENTS RAISING LAKE LEVELS BEYOND THE FLOWAGE EASEMENT, BECAUSE THERE IS LESS RESERVOIR STORAGE AND S. D. WARREN HAS SHUT THE GATES TO MINIMIZE DOWNSTREAM FLOODING.

By copy of this letter to S. D. Warren I am asking them to reconsider their proposed LLMP in its license renewal application based on the following:

1. On September 11, 2003 FERC Compliance Division found S. D. Warren in violation of the Order Amending LLMP because S. D. Warren failed to achieve the required spring 2003 fill-up from May 1 through the second week of June.
2. At the January 7, 2004 technical conference FERC personnel made it clear that the May 1 to June 15 target range is a mandate and lake levels should have been kept higher in March 2003, even though there was 6 to 8 in. of water in the snow pack of Sebago Lakeís watershed.

3. In response to a question from me at the January 7, 2004 technical conference, S. D. Warren personnel stated that 210,000 cfm is the maximum hydraulic capacity of Eel Weir Dam, and there have been inflow events which exceeded this capacity.

4. After the events of June 1998, it should be obvious to everyone
that when lake levels are at the upper range of the May 1 to June 15 target range, that S. D. Warren does not have the hydraulic capacity to keep lake elevations from exceeding the flowage easements, even during a two-year storm event.

5. The target ranges in the existing plan have resulted in a 1997-2003 mean that is 9" to 17" above the historic mean of 1910-86 from July through November (see Appendix 2). The annual rainfall was below normal in five of these seven years. This means that continuing the existing LLMP will result in S. D. Warren consistently flowing water over property, which was a historically dry during the years 1910-86.

6. S. D. Warren's response to the recent violation of not hitting the May 1 to June 15 Target Range has to be a significant increase in lake elevations above the February, March and April historic means. This action, along with the already higher lake elevations from July through November, will reduce reservoir storage capacity during periods when historically peak flows have occurred downstream of Eel Weir.

7. The new policy of shutting gates at Eel Weir during periods of downstream flooding will significantly increase the number of times S. D. Warrenís flowage easements are trespassed.

8. S. D. Warren's action of closing the gate on June 14, 1998 was a violation of the operating parameters because they did not immediately increase outflows as required by LLMP to prevent lake levels from reaching elevation 267.15 ft. msl.

If S. D. Warren does not respond to this request within 30 days, then FERC needs to make appropriate changes to protect both downstream and upstream property owners from increased flooding events and to keep lake levels from exceeding the flowage easement limit of 267.15 ft. msl.

The following paragraph from the current Order Amending LLMP highlights that S. D. Warren is not to allow lake levels to exceed 267.15 ft. msl and mandates appropriate action to keep lake levels from reaching elevation 267.15 ft. msl:

"Finally, we want to emphasize that the provision of the settlement plan that would permit the lake to be filled to a level six inches above the spillway crest (267.15 feet) does not recognize levels above the spillway crest as being within normal operating ranges. This provision was proposed to allow the lake level to be raised to the spillway crest, recognizing that some leeway above that level, up to the limits of Warren's flowage easements, would be necessary to achieve full pond. While there may be a high flow or flood conditions beyond Warren's control that result in lake levels of up to 267.15, we would emphasize the settlement provisions' operating parameters (under the description of Stage 1 flows) that mandate immediate increases in outflows as necessary to prevent reaching elevation 267.15, or from remaining at or above the spillway crest for more than three weeks during any year."

In closing, S. D. WARREN COULD NOT KEEP LAKE LEVELS FROM EXCEEDING ELEVATION 267.15 FT. MSL IN JUNE OF 1998 BECAUSE IT DID NOT HAVE ENOUGH HYDRAULIC CAPACITY AT EEL WEIR DAM. Since it did not have enough hydraulic capacity for a two-year storm event, then the proposed target range between May 1 to June 15 has to be lowered in order to ensure that lake elevations will not exceed 267.15 ft. msl and to provide more reservoir storage to mitigate downstream flooding.

Sincerely,



Stephen M. Kasprzak
SMK/gcl
Encs.